Gold remains structurally supported as stagflation risks persist and central bank demand hits record levels.
Sticky services inflation above trend
Gold's macro case remains structurally intact despite the current Risk-On environment. The key driver is the ongoing de-dollarization trend among emerging market central banks, particularly China, India, and Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds.
The relationship between real yields and gold has partially decoupled in recent years. Historically, rising real yields would suppress gold prices. However, geopolitical risk premiums and reserve diversification demand have created a structural floor around $2,000/oz.
From an inflation perspective, services inflation remains sticky above 3% in the US and Europe, suggesting that the disinflation trade is nearly complete. If inflation re-accelerates — the stagflation scenario — gold would be the primary beneficiary across all asset classes.
Inflation Regime
Transitional
Confidence
61%
Central bank demand + stagflation hedge
Industrial demand recovery + monetary premium
Range-bound as inflation stays sticky
Stagflation risk caps equity upside
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