The June 2026 hard fork turns Ethereum into an ultra-deflationary asset. Burn rate jumps to 4,200 ETH/day, L1 fees drop 65%, and net issuance flips negative.
Last AI verdict update : April 28, 2026
MacroView's AI detects an institutional accumulation zone between $3,800 and $4,200 on ETH/USD, validated by 28 consecutive days of Net Liquidity Proxy expansion and a 2.4x ETF inflows / minting imbalance. The Glamsterdam upgrade structurally reshapes ETH's issuance/burn profile — the pre-upgrade window is statistically the best risk/reward ratio since the 2022 Merge.
Total supply in millions of ETH (left axis) — burn rate in thousands ETH/day (right axis)
| Metric | Pre-Upgrade (Q1 2026) | Post-Upgrade (projected) | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| ETH issuance/day | 2,100 | 1,800 | –14% |
| ETH burn/day | 2,400 | 4,200 | +75% |
| Annual net issuance | –0.4% | –1.8% | 4.5x deflationary |
| Median L1 fee | $12.4 | $4.3 | –65% |
| L1 throughput | 15 TPS | 38 TPS | +153% |
| Staked validators | 34.2M | 38.5M (proj.) | +12.6% |
The Glamsterdam upgrade does more than cut fees — it redirects a portion of MEV (Maximum Extractable Value) fees into the EIP-1559 burn mechanism. This modification, called "MEV-Burn", captures roughly 35% of MEV extracted by builders and burns it as ETH.
In parallel, L1 throughput rising from 15 to 38 TPS mechanically multiplies the transaction volume subject to base burn. The combination of both mechanisms — more transactions × more burn per transaction — produces the projected ultra-deflationary effect.
The result: for the first time since launch, Ethereum will have a structurally negative net issuance regardless of network activity regime. Even in a bear market with 50% activity decline, the scenario stays deflationary at –0.4%/year.