Macro & Technical Analysis

Asset Analyses

Q: What is macro analysis and why does it matter for trading?

Macro analysis examines central bank policy, inflation, growth, and liquidity cycles to understand what drives asset prices at a structural level. Unlike technical analysis, macro analysis explains WHY markets move. Traders who understand macro context have a significant edge in identifying trend reversals before they happen.

Q: How are BUY and SELL signals generated on MacroViewMarket?

The direction of every signal comes from a 100% deterministic quantitative engine (V3), with no AI involvement in the decision. It measures multi-horizon momentum over four fixed lookbacks (21, 63, 126 and 252 days) and applies the strategy validated in backtest for that specific asset class: trend long-or-cash for crypto and bonds, long-or-short for oil, managed 60-100% exposure for indices and gold. Position size is volatility-targeted. Assets that failed out-of-sample validation — the major FX pairs, silver, copper and XRP — carry no directional signal and are shown as NEUTRAL. Macro context accompanies the signal but never changes its direction.

Q: Is the signal engine backtested, and what are the real numbers?

Yes, and the full results are public on the /backtest page. Measured on 2014–2026 with transaction costs included: Solana 1.22, Bitcoin 1.20, BNB 0.87, Ethereum 0.72, Gold 0.71, Nasdaq 0.67, WTI oil 0.47 Sharpe. The equal-weight portfolio of all core signals reaches a Sharpe of 1.36 with a −10.4% maximum drawdown. The four momentum horizons are fixed before testing, so no parameter is fitted to the data and every result is out-of-sample by construction.

Q: Which assets are covered in the macro analysis?

MacroViewMarket covers 20+ assets across five classes: Indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq, DAX), Forex (EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD), Commodities (Gold, Oil, Silver), Crypto (Bitcoin, Ethereum), and Bonds (US 10Y, Bund). Each asset has its own macro score, signal, and institutional reading updated regularly.

Q: What is the difference between macro score and confidence level?

The macro score summarizes the bullish or bearish environment for an asset. The confidence level (conviction) is computed deterministically from the signal engine: it starts from the agreement between the four momentum horizons — all four aligned gives maximum conviction — then rises when ADX confirms an established trend and falls in directionless markets or extreme volatility regimes. No subjective or AI adjustment is applied.

Q: How is institutional positioning different from retail sentiment?

Institutional positioning tracks what large funds, hedge funds, and central banks are doing with capital — derived from COT reports, options flow, and balance sheet data. Retail sentiment tracks what small traders believe (often a contrarian indicator). Divergence between the two is one of the most powerful macro trading signals available.